{ "schemaVersion": 3, "methodologyVersion": "1.2", "snapshotType": "backfill", "cutoff": "2026-09-01T09:00:00+08:00", "previousCutoff": "2026-08-16T09:00:00+08:00", "researchedAt": "2026-09-11T12:05:56+08:00", "publishedAt": "2026-09-11T12:05:56+08:00", "backfilled": true, "originalScheduledDate": "2026-09-01", "score": null, "band": null, "scoreStatus": "insufficient-evidence", "coverage": 0.0075, "coverageLabel": "评分证据复核未完成", "calculation": { "formula": "100 / 3 * sum(weight * score)", "weightedSubtotal": -0.75, "note": "仅供算术校验的已知项小计，不是综合分。覆盖不足40%不发布分数或方向。" }, "factualDelta": null, "methodEffect": null, "coverageDelta": null, "changeExplanation": "证据审核口径收紧，与旧48.75%不能当作事实变化比较；旧19项有分指标中，本次仅复核完成1项。", "level3": [ { "id": "U1.1", "name": "前沿任务综合成功率", "weight": 0.07, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": 1, "missingReason": "榜单单位不同；缺四类任务统一的成功率合成与可重复计算，不能把指数点或 Elo 点当百分点。" }, { "id": "U1.2", "name": "长程任务可靠性", "weight": 0.042, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": null, "missingReason": "尚未取得双方同口径、可复算的数据。" }, { "id": "U1.3", "name": "可信与安全部署能力", "weight": 0.028, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": null, "missingReason": "尚未取得双方同口径、可复算的数据。" }, { "id": "U2.1", "name": "每个成功任务的有效成本", "weight": 0.036, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": -1, "missingReason": "旧记录只有区间判断，缺双方同口径原值和直接证据链。" }, { "id": "U2.2", "name": "端到端延迟与吞吐", "weight": 0.024, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": null, "missingReason": "尚未取得双方同口径、可复算的数据。" }, { "id": "U2.3", "name": "前沿服务可获得性", "weight": 0.02, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": null, "missingReason": "尚未取得双方同口径、可复算的数据。" }, { "id": "U3.1", "name": "质量调整后的前沿模型供给", "weight": 0.032, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": 1, "missingReason": "旧记录只有区间判断，缺双方同口径原值和直接证据链。" }, { "id": "U3.2", "name": "高影响研究贡献", "weight": 0.024, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": 0, "missingReason": "研究数量与影响混合成零分，但没有可比的质量调整原值。" }, { "id": "U3.3", "name": "前沿人才与组织厚度", "weight": 0.024, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": null, "missingReason": "尚未取得双方同口径、可复算的数据。" }, { "id": "C1.1", "name": "芯片实际性能与能效", "weight": 0.035, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": 2, "missingReason": "旧记录只有区间判断，缺双方同口径原值和直接证据链。" }, { "id": "C1.2", "name": "国内可获得的有效交付算力", "weight": 0.049, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": null, "missingReason": "尚未取得双方同口径、可复算的数据。" }, { "id": "C1.3", "name": "HBM 与先进封装合格产出", "weight": 0.035, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": null, "missingReason": "尚未取得双方同口径、可复算的数据。" }, { "id": "C1.4", "name": "关键供应链抗阻断能力", "weight": 0.021, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": 1, "missingReason": "旧记录只有区间判断，缺双方同口径原值和直接证据链。" }, { "id": "C2.1", "name": "大集群训练 goodput", "weight": 0.0385, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": null, "missingReason": "尚未取得双方同口径、可复算的数据。" }, { "id": "C2.2", "name": "互联与规模扩展效率", "weight": 0.0275, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": 3, "missingReason": "旧记录只有区间判断，缺双方同口径原值和直接证据链。" }, { "id": "C2.3", "name": "大规模推理效率", "weight": 0.0275, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": 2, "missingReason": "旧记录只有区间判断，缺双方同口径原值和直接证据链。" }, { "id": "C2.4", "name": "软件栈生产成熟度", "weight": 0.0165, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": 2, "missingReason": "旧记录只有区间判断，缺双方同口径原值和直接证据链。" }, { "id": "C3.1", "name": "已通电 AI 计算容量", "weight": 0.04, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": 1, "missingReason": "旧记录只有区间判断，缺双方同口径原值和直接证据链。" }, { "id": "C3.2", "name": "未来 24 个月确定性电力管线", "weight": 0.02, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": null, "missingReason": "尚未取得双方同口径、可复算的数据。" }, { "id": "C3.3", "name": "可租用前沿云容量", "weight": 0.025, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": 2, "missingReason": "旧记录只有区间判断，缺双方同口径原值和直接证据链。" }, { "id": "C3.4", "name": "运行效率与可靠性", "weight": 0.015, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": null, "missingReason": "尚未取得双方同口径、可复算的数据。" }, { "id": "E1.1", "name": "活跃生产下游", "weight": 0.03, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": null, "missingReason": "尚未取得双方同口径、可复算的数据。" }, { "id": "E1.2", "name": "开放模型质量与开放程度", "weight": 0.025, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": -1, "missingReason": "旧记录只有区间判断，缺双方同口径原值和直接证据链。" }, { "id": "E1.3", "name": "推理用量与留存", "weight": 0.03, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": null, "missingReason": "尚未取得双方同口径、可复算的数据。" }, { "id": "E1.4", "name": "工具链与迁移成本", "weight": 0.015, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": 1, "missingReason": "旧记录只有区间判断，缺双方同口径原值和直接证据链。" }, { "id": "E2.1", "name": "付费生产部署渗透率", "weight": 0.03, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": null, "missingReason": "尚未取得双方同口径、可复算的数据。" }, { "id": "E2.2", "name": "续约与扩张", "weight": 0.025, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": null, "missingReason": "尚未取得双方同口径、可复算的数据。" }, { "id": "E2.3", "name": "已验证生产率与质量收益", "weight": 0.03, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": null, "missingReason": "尚未取得双方同口径、可复算的数据。" }, { "id": "E2.4a", "name": "AI 具身与工业自主化", "weight": 0.0075, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": null, "missingReason": "尚未取得双方同口径、可复算的数据。" }, { "id": "E2.4b", "name": "普通工业机器人安装", "weight": 0.0075, "score": -3, "rawValue": { "china": 295045, "unitedStates": 34164, "unit": "台/年", "denominator": "各国全年新安装的普通工业机器人，IFR 同一定义", "dataPeriod": "2024" }, "evidence": [ "IFR" ], "sourceAsOf": "2025-09-25", "staleDays": 341, "previousRecordedScore": -3, "missingReason": null, "mapping": { "kind": "scale-ratio", "reason": "中国/美国=8.636，超过3倍；只占总权重0.75%，不代表AI机器人采用。" } }, { "id": "E3.1", "name": "已确认 AI 收入及质量", "weight": 0.024, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": 2, "missingReason": "旧记录只有区间判断，缺双方同口径原值和直接证据链。" }, { "id": "E3.2", "name": "单位经济与客户 ROI", "weight": 0.024, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": null, "missingReason": "尚未取得双方同口径、可复算的数据。" }, { "id": "E3.3", "name": "私人资本耐久度", "weight": 0.016, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": 3, "missingReason": "可核实私人投资总额差距；原指标另要求扣除循环融资、考虑资金成本，现有数据未完成该调整。" }, { "id": "E3.4", "name": "公共与战略资本", "weight": 0.016, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": null, "missingReason": "尚未取得双方同口径、可复算的数据。" }, { "id": "E4.1", "name": "第三国实际采购", "weight": 0.0245, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": null, "missingReason": "尚未取得双方同口径、可复算的数据。" }, { "id": "E4.2", "name": "国际服务覆盖与用量", "weight": 0.0175, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": 2, "missingReason": "旧记录只有区间判断，缺双方同口径原值和直接证据链。" }, { "id": "E4.3", "name": "技术标准实际采纳", "weight": 0.014, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": 0, "missingReason": "只有声明与倡议，缺双方实际采纳的对称统计；不能据此判平手。" }, { "id": "E4.4", "name": "制度与监管影响力", "weight": 0.014, "score": null, "rawValue": null, "evidence": [], "sourceAsOf": null, "staleDays": null, "previousRecordedScore": 0, "missingReason": "缺预算、执行与制度影响的双方可比原值；不能以没有新材料判平手。" } ], "sources": [ { "id": "NVIDIA", "title": "NVIDIA FY2027 Q2 业绩", "url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-Second-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx", "publishedAt": "2026-08-26", "grade": "A", "excerpt": "Data Center revenue of $89.0 billion, up 117% from a year ago", "role": "observation", "dateNote": "Publication date; data period is recorded separately", "excerptType": "short extract", "httpStatus": null, "fetchError": "HTTPError", "fetchedAt": "2026-09-11T11:57:12+08:00", "verification": "正文由网页检索工具直接读取核验；本机下载被拒绝，未生成本机原始页哈希。" }, { "id": "ALIBABA", "title": "阿里巴巴完成 800 亿港元配售", "url": "https://www.alibabagroup.com/en-US/document-2029365886510432256", "publishedAt": "2026-08-26", "grade": "A", "excerpt": "completion of its HK$80 billion placing", "role": "observation", "dateNote": "Publication date; data period is recorded separately", "excerptType": "short extract", "httpStatus": 200, "captureSha256": "78758e8e0f49592216c83ecceeb74a79c62f287fe30cf6ce547d51bc74abb098", "fetchedAt": "2026-09-11T11:57:12+08:00" }, { "id": "PAPER", "title": "Qwen3.8-Next 架构论文", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.30320", "publishedAt": "2026-08-31T06:35:07Z", "grade": "C", "excerpt": "125B parameters, 6B activated per token", "role": "observation", "dateNote": "Publication date; data period is recorded separately", "excerptType": "short extract", "httpStatus": 200, "captureSha256": "cd4b5126bfb85540bbbb56870accd488b62c8514567503487be5d9cea107c3fc", "fetchedAt": "2026-09-11T11:57:12+08:00" }, { "id": "QWEN", "title": "Qwen 团队官方模型仓库", "url": "https://github.com/QwenLM/Qwen3.8", "publishedAt": "2026-08-14", "grade": "A", "excerpt": "2026-08-12: Qwen3.8-2.4T-A95B is now available", "role": "observation", "dateNote": "Publication date; data period is recorded separately", "excerptType": "short extract", "httpStatus": 200, "captureSha256": "44b78b5f54444fcc965f0c552ee6335d4d0aff9f86b27636d771d77935b1f07f", "fetchedAt": "2026-09-11T11:57:12+08:00" }, { "id": "IFR", "title": "IFR World Robotics 2025，执行摘要第14页", "url": "https://ifr.org/img/worldrobotics/Executive_Summary_WR_2025_Industrial_Robots.pdf", "publishedAt": "2025-09-25", "grade": "B", "excerpt": "China: 295,045 units. United States: 34,164 units. 2024.", "role": "scoring", "dateNote": "Publication date; data period is recorded separately", "excerptType": "short extract", "httpStatus": 200, "captureSha256": "2d6108e7f002ea4f9578dff8cfa9e5734b7fe6c13c1fb5fdbe566040b5f9c0e4", "fetchedAt": "2026-09-11T11:57:12+08:00" }, { "id": "STANFORD", "title": "Stanford AI Index 2026：经济", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report/economy", "publishedAt": null, "grade": "B", "excerpt": "The United States continues to lead in global private AI investment", "role": "observation", "dateNote": "2026 annual report; exact publication day not reverified; observation only", "excerptType": "short extract", "httpStatus": 200, "captureSha256": "19fdc5c8c426530f380811d2fd8f6e753851cfc8679c1440c4b3c4594a803439", "fetchedAt": "2026-09-11T11:57:12+08:00" } ], "leaderboardChecks": [], "editorial": { "headline": "模型在更新，投入在增加；总分暂时回答不了谁领先。", "summary": "先看能核实的变化。8 月下旬，英伟达披露收入增长，阿里完成新融资，千问公布效率研究。三件事分别说明业务、资金和技术进展，不能直接加成一个国家竞争分数。", "cards": [ { "topic": "算力与生意", "title": "芯片需求在增长，但收入不能换算成国家算力", "text": "英伟达披露本季数据中心收入 890 亿美元，同比增长 117%。这能说明公司的业务规模；芯片卖到哪里、是否已装机、能完成多少工作，还需要另一组数据。", "date": "2026-08-26", "sourceId": "NVIDIA" }, { "topic": "中国企业投入", "title": "阿里完成融资，下一步要看钱花成了什么", "text": "阿里巴巴完成 800 亿港元配售，计划将净额约六成用于算力基础设施、四成用于数据中心和云升级。钱已募集与机房已通电，是两件需要分别核实的事。", "date": "2026-08-26", "sourceId": "ALIBABA" }, { "topic": "模型效率", "title": "千问在尝试用更少的计算做同样的工作", "text": "8 月 31 日的 Qwen3.8-Next 论文披露了稀疏模型架构和消融实验。它提供了可检验的技术方案；企业自己的测试仍需独立复现，暂不据此给中美改分。", "date": "2026-08-31", "sourceId": "PAPER" } ], "scoreExplanation": "旧分数连续三期相同，是沿用同一组评分的结果。19 项已有分数中，15 项用区间判断代替原始值。本次逐项检查后，只有普通工业机器人安装量完成了符合原定义的评分复核，其余暂记缺失。", "readingNote": "9 月 1 日缺刊，于 9 月 11 日补发。正文使用原截止前已公布的资料；后来看到的榜单不倒填。", "comparisons": [ { "topic": "工厂自动化基础", "value": "IFR 2024 年安装量：中国 295,045 台；美国 34,164 台。", "meaning": "普通工业机器人。可以比较自动化规模，不能代表 AI 机器人采用；评分权重只有 0.75%。", "sourceId": "IFR", "date": "2024", "unit": "台/年", "rawValue": { "china": 295045, "unitedStates": 34164 } } ] }, "nextScheduledDate": "2026-09-16T18:00:00+08:00", "recovery": { "draftScore": 14.8667, "draftScoreAccepted": false, "reason": "未发布草稿仍继承无原值的评分，且以不同榜单点数推导同一成功率门槛。" } }